ETHUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,874.6 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,873.9 with a price move of +0.04%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 15:23 |
| Entry | 1,874.6 |
| Stop-loss | 1,898.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,857.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,846 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,873.9 |
| Realized P&L | +0.04% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4) — 5m/15m bear-aligned and deeply oversold (RSI ~18), 1h EMA mixed/oversold, 4h still bull-aligned; ADX_1h 28 with positive slope (+2.4, strengthening), but Hurst 0.18 (strongly mean-reverting) and choppiness 37 (borderline-trending) — a fresh downward impulse (net -2.4% 4h) inside a mean-reverting tape, F&G 30 Fear. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean on the near-term downward momentum, but tempered — the move is stretched (RSI 18 on 5m/15m) and Hurst 0.18 argues for a bounce; the fresh impulse and OI accelerating narrowly wins the tiebreak on the trend-continuation side. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is momentum/flow — net -2.4% over 4h with price pinned at 5d/20d/90d low (dist_from_extrema -2.98% high, at the lows), aggregated OI -1.85% (longs bleeding out), funding still positive so more long liquidation fuel below. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 18 oversold + Hurst 0.18 mean-reversion + 4h bull EMA stack means a sharp reclaim bounce back above ~1885 invalidates the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1874.59; stop above the recent congestion/1h structure at 1898.4 (~1.27% risk, within the ~34% rv range); stretch target 1846.0 down toward the next liquidity shelf, ~1.53% below, R:R ~1.2. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting tape and oversold readings cap conviction — modest edge to the short.
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