BTCUSD short — 12 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,849.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,754.5 with a price move of +0.15%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-12 14:11 |
| Entry | 63,849.4 |
| Stop-loss | 64,760 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,159.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,700 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,754.5 |
| Realized P&L | +0.15% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (1h EMA bear_aligned, 5m/15m/4h mixed), ADX_1h 19.9 with slope -0.52 (fading, sub-trend), adx_20 18.2, choppiness 48.4, ER_10 0.08 / ER_30 0.07 (near-zero efficiency), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a low-efficiency chop/transitional tape with a mild bearish tilt, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 1h EMA bear_aligned, net_move_4h -0.42% (fresh down-impulse), OI accelerating_down + oi_change_recent_half -0.30%, taker ratio 0.929 (sellers slightly leading), Fear&Greed 27, price pinned -2.19% below 5d/20d/90d high; the counter is top-trader pos ratio 1.56 long and funding_z +1.15 (crowded long already), which argues squeeze risk down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI accelerating_down while price fades and takers sell, consistent with longs bleeding out below a rejected 5d high; crowded-long funding (z +1.33 agg) adds fuel for a downside flush. 4. PRE-MORTEM: this is chop with strong mean-reversion (Hurst 0.36, ER ~0.07) and z_score -1.02 (already stretched down) — a bounce back toward the 20d mean would invalidate; recent same-regime shorts have lost/expired. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,849; stop above the recent swing / 5d-high rejection zone at 64,760 (~1.43% risk, within 24h RV of ~2%); TP1 stretch at 62,700 (~1.80% reward, R:R ~1.25, structural toward the 20d-low band and reachable given avg 24h traversal 0.66% x mean-revert extension). 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape, thin edge, meaningful expire risk.
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