ETHUSD short — 12 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,878.9 and stopped out at 1,899.5 after 9.1 hours, closing at -1.10%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-12 20:11 |
| Entry | 1,878.9 |
| Stop-loss | 1,899.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,865.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,857.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,899.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.10% |
| Time open | 9.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (5m/1h bear-aligned, 15m/4h mixed), ADX_1h 19.2 slope -2.8 (fading), Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting), choppiness 43, ER-30 0.05 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 27 Fear — a fading, low-vol chop with a fresh downward impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net -0.58% 4h/-0.59% 12h is the freshest momentum, OI collapsing (agg -0.83%, oi_5m_z -2.14, momentum accelerating_down), latest taker 0.73 sell-skewed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI unwinding hard into a bear 1h EMA stack while price sits below all 5d/20d/90d highs (-2.5% to -2.7%) — flow+trend agree on the downside; the strong short track record in this exact ETH chop regime reinforces the fade-the-pop-lower bias. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 29.6 oversold + top-trader position ratio 1.33 long-lean could spark a mean-reversion bounce back above 1890, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent 4h swing / oversold-bounce zone at 1899.5 (dist ~1.1%, ~0.4x rv_24h, snug for calm regime); target the 5d/20d-low area down at 1857 (dist ~1.16%, R:R ~1.05, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.83%). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum + OI unwind favor downside but oversold 15m and mean-reverting Hurst cap conviction.
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