BTCUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,040.2 and hit its target at 62,590.1 after 20.3 hours, closing at +0.71%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 16:54 |
| Entry | 63,040.2 |
| Stop-loss | 63,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,590.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,290 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 62,590.1 |
| Realized P&L | +0.71% |
| Time open | 20.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), but ADX_1h only 14.8 and adx_20 12.3 (chop-grade), choppiness 47.4, ER_10 0.53 / ER_30 0.27, Hurst 0.36 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a bearish-tilted but low-efficiency, high-vol chop tape (RV at 92nd pctile). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — every EMA stack bear_aligned, fresh down-impulse (net_4h -1.01%, net_12h -1.01%, net_24h -0.68%), OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -5.46, agg_oi -1.56%) with taker 1h 0.87 (sell-heavy) — sellers driving, longs unwinding. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow+structure — OI collapsing with sell-side takers on a full bearish EMA stack, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_high -3.44%, at the low), a trend-aligned continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z_20d -2.48 and Hurst 0.36 flag a stretched, mean-reverting tape — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.54 (longs positioned) plus fear (FG 29) sets up a snap-back bounce that would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,040; stop above near-term structure at 63,720 (~1.08%, within the 1.68% 7d range); target the stretch down at 62,290 (~1.19%, R:R ~1.1, inside clamps) — a reachable extension of the impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: stretched/mean-reverting tape and chop-grade ADX cap conviction — p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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