ETHUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,872.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,884.3 with a price move of -0.61%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 16:54 |
| Entry | 1,872.9 |
| Stop-loss | 1,892.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,860.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,852 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,884.3 |
| Realized P&L | -0.61% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (5m/15m/1h bear-aligned, 4h mixed), ADX_1h 13.9 slope +0.41 (sub-15 chop, barely strengthening), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), choppiness 50.1, ER-30 0.24 (nets little), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a low-conviction mean-reverting chop with a fresh downward drift. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — freshest momentum is net -0.79% 4h/-0.97% 12h, taker 0.856 sell-skewed, OI momentum accelerating_down, and the entire lower-TF EMA stack is bear-aligned; this asset's own track record shorts win (3 recent shorts won, longs lost). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 5m/15m/1h EMA bear stack plus accelerating_down OI (oi_change_recent_half -0.92%) and sell-skewed taker flow all point the same way; price sits -1.31 z below 20d mean but momentum still fading lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +0.60% off the 5d low so a mean-reverting bounce off that support (Hurst 0.39) could snap the fade higher and stop me. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1872.88, stop above the recent intraday shelf at 1892.5 (~1.05% up, within the ~1.0x rv/atr band), take_profit_1 at 1852.0 (~1.12% down, R:R ~1.06) targeting a retest below the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a thin downward edge near support — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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