BTCUSD short — 15 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,039.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,040.5 with a price move of -0.00%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-15 13:13 |
| Entry | 63,039.5 |
| Stop-loss | 63,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,619.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,340 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,040.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.00% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment "mixed" but 15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned, ADX_1h only 15.9 (slope barely +0.13), adx_20 16.8, choppiness 60.7 (>61 threshold — range-bound), ER_10 0.003 / ER_30 0.06 (near-zero efficiency), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a low-efficiency chop tape with a bearish tilt on higher TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — every higher-TF EMA stack bear_aligned, 4h RSI 38.8, 1h taker ratio 0.82 (sell-heavy), OI decelerating/falling (-1.4% 24h, oi_z negative) confirming no long conviction; rolling_z -1.43 is stretched but not a reclaim. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the higher-TF EMA stack (15m/1h/4h bear) plus persistent sell-side taker flow (0.82) and decelerating OI is the cleanest cluster; prior BTC shorts in this exact chop regime won repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling_z -1.43 and price only +0.72% off the 5d/20d/90d low invites a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim of ~63,400 with taker flow flipping >1 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 63,039; stop above the near structure / z-score bounce zone at 63,720 (~1.08% ≈ 0.67x rv_24h, structural invalidation beyond the 5d-high area); take_profit_1 at 62,340 (~1.11% down, R:R ≈ 1.03, inside 1.5x/4% clamps) targeting the 5d/20d/90d low retest. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with mild bearish tilt — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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