BTCUSD short — 16 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,041.3 and stopped out at 63,760 after 22.6 hours, closing at -1.14%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-16 13:13 |
| Entry | 63,041.3 |
| Stop-loss | 63,760 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,551.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,225 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 63,760 |
| Realized P&L | -1.14% |
| Time open | 22.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4h/1h/5m EMA all bear_aligned but mtf_alignment labeled mixed, ADX_1h 15.3 (chop-grade) with slope +1.7, choppiness 49.5, ER_30 0.016 (near-zero efficiency), Hurst 0.34 (mean-reversion), HMM calm, RV at 2.6th pctile — a dead-low-vol chop tape with a mild bearish structural tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 4h/1h/5m EMA stacks bear_aligned, price pinned near 5d low (-1.83% from 5d high, +0.72% off 5d/20d/90d low), funding z deeply negative (-1.36) and unwinding, ETF net outflow (-2.54x velocity), BTC dominance fading. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: structure cluster — every meaningful EMA stack bear_aligned and price sitting just above the 90d low with rolling z -1.14 shows sellers in control; the 24h taker at 1.22 is a minor bounce inside a broader down-bias, and prior same-regime shorts on this asset won +0.67-0.71%. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 1.47 (longs) plus the freshest 4h up-impulse (+0.12%) and 1h taker 1.22 — a squeeze back above 63,700 through the 5d-high area would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,041; stop above the recent swing/5d-high zone at 63,760 (~1.14% ≈ ~0.7x rv_24h, structural invalidation beyond top-trader defense); target the 90d/20d-low retest zone at 62,225 (~1.29% below, ~1.13x stop distance, R:R ≈ 1.13), reachable given avg_move_24h 0.53% but this is a stretch to the low. 6. EXPECTATION: low-vol chop caps traversal, so meaningful expire probability; short structurally favored but thin.
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