BTCUSD short — 25 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 78,180.6 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 78,723 with a price move of -0.69%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 21:13 |
| Entry | 78,180.6 |
| Stop-loss | 79,320 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,352.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 76,800 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 78,723 |
| Realized P&L | -0.69% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 mixed (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull), 1h ADX 23.6 with +2.0 slope, 4h ADX 55.5 strong bull but choppiness 49.2 and ER_30 0.10 (path nets nowhere near-term), Hurst 0.51, HMM calm conf 1.0 — an intact HTF bull structure now pulling back on lower TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -1.29%/4h, -0.96%/24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.30, agg_oi -1.07%), taker ratio 0.658 (sellers pressing hard this hour), funding elevated (z +1.29, agg_z +1.37) — flow leans short despite the HTF bull stack. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: this is a counter-trend short of the 4h bull, but the confluence of unwinding OI on falling price, a fresh sub-0.66 taker sell hour, and crowded-long funding (positioning tilt to unwind) points down near-term; no bullish reclaim is present (price -3.13% below 5d/20d/90d high, rolling under). 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of ~79,000 with taker ratio flipping back above 1.0 would reassert the dominant 4h bull and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 78,180; stop 79,320 just beyond the recent pullback pivot / reclaim zone (~1.46% ≈ 0.5x rv_24h band, within the ~1.78% 12h traversal); take_profit_1 at 76,800 structural support (1.77% down, RR ≈ 1.2x, inside clamps and reachable within avg 3.15%/24h move). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum + flow favor the downside but the HTF bull and stretched RV cap follow-through.
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