BTCUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,127.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,920.5 with a price move of -1.03%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:23 |
| Entry | 77,127.4 |
| Stop-loss | 78,450 |
| Take-profit 1 | 76,133 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 75,470 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,920.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.03% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 transitional — 4h EMA bull_aligned (ADX 36) but 5m bear_aligned, 15m/1h mixed and all lower TFs deeply oversold (RSI 17-24); 1h ADX 21.8 rising +3.1, choppiness 36.7 (trending edge), ER_10 0.72 clean, Hurst 0.47, HMM calm — an intact HTF bull structure in a sharp near-term flush (net -2.9%/4h, -4.0%/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but the near-term impulse is a violent selloff into oversold — I lean SHORT with the momentum, as OI is bleeding (agg -4.98%, oi_5m_z -2.63 accelerating_down) and taker ratio 0.776 shows aggressive selling; not a fade because there is no reclaim yet. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster is decisive — accelerating_down OI momentum + sub-1 taker ratio + agg funding still positive (longs paying while price craters = long unwind not complete), at fresh 5d/20d/90d low (-4.47% from high, only +0.27% off the 5d low). 4. PRE-MORTEM: deep oversold (5m RSI 17, 1h RSI 23) plus top_trader_pos_ratio 2.10 rising means a sharp mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low would invalidate; a reclaim of ~78,300 kills the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,127; stop above the recent breakdown shelf at 78,450 (~1.72% risk, within 24h range which is 4%+); target the next liquidity extension below the 5d low at 75,470 (~2.15% reward, R:R ~1.25, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong momentum but oversold-bounce risk and low OI keep this from a clean read.
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