ETHUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,449.1 and hit its target at 2,405 after 16 minutes, closing at +1.80%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:08 |
| Entry | 2,449.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,483.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,422.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,405 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,405 |
| Realized P&L | +1.80% |
| Time open | 16 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 11.5 slope +2.2 and ADX-20 9.1 (no near-term trend), 4h ADX 37 lags, ER-30 0.21/choppiness 50, Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — chop_high_vol tape with fresh downside momentum inside a still-nominally-bull 4h structure. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is clearly down — net_move -2.0% (4h) / -2.9% (24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -4.4, oi_15m_z -2.1, agg_oi -3.5%), taker 0.74 (sell pressure), 5m RSI oversold 25 — a modest short lean, but the counterweight is top-trader pos ratio 1.83 long and Hurst 0.34 (mean-revert against fresh drops). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: this is a chop_high_vol tape with a genuinely fading price that has ALSO shed OI hard (accelerating_down) — that is de-risking/liquidation flow, not accumulation, and the 5-loss track record of prior longs in this exact chop regime tells me leaning WITH the momentum (short) is the honest edge here; the 4h bull EMA is stale (RSI already 46, decaying) and price is -3.4% under the 5d/20d/90d high with no reclaim. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Hurst 0.34 mean-reversion + oversold 5m RSI 25 + top-trader longs could snap price back off 2440 support — a reclaim of 2470 kills the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2449.08; stop above the near-term structure/reclaim at 2483.5 (~1.4% / within 24h RV of 2.47% avg move); target the downside continuation toward 2405 (~1.8%, ~1.28x stop distance, inside 4% clamp) — a level the fresh downtrend points at. 6. EXPECTATION: chop + mean-revert risk keeps p_expire meaningful.
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