BTCUSD short — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,925.2 and stopped out at 78,760 after 3.5 hours, closing at -1.07%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 12:38 |
| Entry | 77,925.2 |
| Stop-loss | 78,760 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,355.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 76,975 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 78,760 |
| Realized P&L | -1.07% |
| Time open | 3.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m mixed, 15m/4h bull EMA, 1h bear), 1h ADX 21.3 slope -3.07 fading, choppiness 55.1, ER_10 0.21 / ER_30 0.05 (net-nowhere), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a decelerating structure with declared regime bear_trend but low conviction chop underneath. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow leans DOWN — net -0.66%/4h, -1.05%/24h, agg OI -1.71% and Binance OI -1.06% (positions bleeding into weakness), latest taker 0.59 (heavy sell) — but counterweight is oversold 5m RSI 29.9 and price only +0.75% off 5d low, so a bounce risk exists; the momentum edge modestly favors short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short is trend-aligned to the 1h bear stack and declared bear_trend regime, confirmed by falling OI on down move (long unwind) and the freshest taker prints skewed to sellers; funding z +1.28 crowded-long adds squeeze fuel below. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI 29.9 oversold sitting on 5d low +0.75% — a reclaim of the ~78,600 level with a taker flip back above 1.0 would signal exhaustion of the flush and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,925; stop 78,760 just above intraday supply / prior consolidation (invalidation on reclaim), ~1.07% risk within the 1.3% 24h avg traversal and rv band; take_profit_1 76,975 at a probe below the 5d low, ~1.22% reward = ~1.14x risk, inside clamps and reachable within 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + near support caps it; p_tp1 43, p_sl 34, p_expire 23.
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