BTCUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 76,711.1 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,355.5 with a price move of -0.84%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 18:48 |
| Entry | 76,711.1 |
| Stop-loss | 78,050 |
| Take-profit 1 | 75,642.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 74,930 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,355.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.84% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear EMA, only 4h still bull), 1h ADX 20.5 slope +5.1 firming, choppiness 35.8 (trending edge), ER_10 0.59 clean near-term / ER_30 0.19, Hurst 0.45, HMM calm conf 1.0 — an HTF structure that has rolled bearish on the lower TFs with a firming down-trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans SHORT — net -1.78%/4h, -2.49%/12h, -2.83%/24h, price sitting at 5d/20d/90d lows (0.0% from all lows), agg OI -0.52% and Binance OI z -2.2 with oi_momentum accelerating_down, taker 0.89. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh downside momentum with an accelerating OI unwind — price is making a clean new 90d low with 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned and 1h ADX firming (+5.1 slope), so the trend-aligned side is short; the down-impulse is confirmed by cross-exchange OI shedding, not a squeeze. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 27 oversold + top_trader_pos_ratio 2.08 (heavily long) + funding_z -1.2 (shorts already crowded) risks a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim back above ~78,000 with a taker flip would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 76,711; stop 78,050 beyond the recent breakdown shelf (~1.75% / ~0.55x the 3.16% rv_24h); take_profit_1 at 74,930 (~2.32% below, ~1.33x stop distance, R:R ~1.33), a structural extension target reachable given 1.32% typical 24h traversal is being exceeded in this impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + long top-trader positioning caps it — p_tp1 44 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 22.
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