ETHUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,401.7 and hit its target at 2,379 after 14.6 hours, closing at +0.95%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 18:48 |
| Entry | 2,401.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,432.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,379 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,363.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,379 |
| Realized P&L | +0.95% |
| Time open | 14.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear EMA, 4h still bull), 1h ADX 20.8 slope +5.0 (strengthening), ADX-20 14.9, ER-10 0.59/ER-30 0.21, choppiness 38.2 (nominally trending), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a HTF-bull structure being sold with fresh downside momentum building on lower TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — net moves clearly down (-1.91% 4h, -2.80% 12h, -3.03% 24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.7, agg_oi_24h -4.5%), last taker bucket 0.574 (heavy sell). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh downside momentum + OI unwinding hard while price fades from the 5d/20d highs, and the strengthening 1h ADX confirms the near-term bear leg; this same short setup on ETH just won twice in the attribution log. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 28 (oversold) + rolling z -2.44 + top-traders leaning long (pos ratio 1.61) + at 5d/20d/90d LOW simultaneously means a mean-reversion bounce off support is the real risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent minor swing/consolidation at 2432 (invalidates the fresh down-leg), ~1.26% risk; TP1 stretch at 2364 targeting continuation below the round-figure, ~1.57% reward, R:R ~1.25 within clamps and reachable given 1.36% avg 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + at-low support caps it — p_tp1 44 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 19.
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