BTCUSD short — 4 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 78,973.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 79,710.5 with a price move of -0.93%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-04 15:03 |
| Entry | 78,973.9 |
| Stop-loss | 80,620 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,801.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 77,020 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 79,710.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.93% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed/oversold RSI 24.7, 1h & 4h bull-EMA), 1h ADX 36.7 slope -2.5 fading, choppiness 40.7 (mid, edging trend), ER_10 0.57 but ER_30 0.14 net-nowhere, Hurst 0.52, HMM calm — a bull HTF structure taking a sharp fresh downside impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow leans DOWN — net -2.73%/4h, -2.27%/12h, -2.88%/24h fresh negative momentum, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.86, recent-half -5.5%), taker 1h 0.79 sell-tilted. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — aggressive OI unwind + accelerating_down momentum + sub-1.0 taker ratio, all pointing lower as price breaks below the 5d range (at 5d/20d low buffer only +3.1%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 24.7 deeply oversold + top-trader pos ratio 2.18 (heavy long) — a snap reclaim of 80,300 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the last swing/EMA reclaim at 80,620 (~2.1% risk, within rv/atr band); take_profit_1 stretch at 77,020 toward the prior demand shelf (~2.47% reward, R:R ~1.17, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum favors continuation but oversold 15m tempers it.
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