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BTCUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 76,999.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,903 with a price move of -1.17%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 12:48 |
| Entry | 76,999.4 |
| Stop-loss | 78,340 |
| Take-profit 1 | 75,991.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 75,320 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,903 |
| Realized P&L | -1.17% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 bear-aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), 1h ADX 32.7 slope +4.1 firming, choppiness 40.9 (mild-trend), ER_10 0.77 clean recent path, Hurst 0.51, HMM calm — an active, firming bear impulse with fresh downside energy. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly leans DOWN — net -1.43%/4h, -1.51%/12h, -3.28%/24h, price at 5d low, rolling z -1.72, OI momentum accelerating but oi_change_24h -1.29% and agg OI bleeding -0.95%. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the bear EMA stack across three lower TFs plus firming 1h ADX and fresh negative momentum is the strongest cluster; taker 0.93 confirms sellers, funding still positive (longs paying) supports more downside as they capitulate. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 22, 15m 18.7, 1h 26.9) and top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 2.27) — a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 76,999; stop above the recent intraday reclaim shelf at 78,340 (~1.74% risk, within 1h-atr/rv range); stretch target down at 75,320 (~2.18% ≈ 1.25x risk, structural continuation below 5d low, reachable within 24h given 24h traversal ~3.3%). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh trend but oversold — modest edge with real bounce risk.
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