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BTCUSD short — 11 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,794.2 and hit its target at 76,879.7 after 2.2 hours, closing at +1.18%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-11 15:57 |
| Entry | 77,794.2 |
| Stop-loss | 78,910 |
| Take-profit 1 | 76,879.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 76,270 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.37 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 76,879.7 |
| Realized P&L | +1.18% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ema bear_aligned with ADX 33.5 rising (slope +0.53) and 4h regime tagged bear_trend, but mtf_alignment mixed (0/4) and Hurst ~0.50 with ER10 0.10 — a bearish 1h trend embedded in choppy, mean-reverting tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: net_move 4h/12h are positive (+0.89/+1.07%) yet price sits -3.3% from 5d high, z-score -1.04, and 1h EMA stack is bearish — the bearish 1h structure plus fading OI edges out a modest short lean over a shallow bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 1h bear_aligned with strong rising ADX (33.5), taker ratio 0.89 (sellers), agg OI -2.67% and Binance OI z -4.7 (positions unwinding into weakness), total mcap -4% and SPX/risk soft; the current +0.89% 4h bounce looks like a retrace into the bear structure. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker buys have been >1.0 in several recent hours and funding is deeply negative (z -1.15) — a squeeze reclaim back above the 5d-high area (~80.4k) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,794; stop above recent bounce structure at 78,910 (~1.43% / roughly one 1h ATR beyond invalidation); stretch target 76,270 (~1.96% down), R:R ~1.37, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 1.4% and rv percentile 91. 6. EXPECTATION: bearish 1h trend but choppy chart and negative funding cap conviction.
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