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BTCUSD short — 11 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,103.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,161.5 with a price move of -0.08%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-11 18:12 |
| Entry | 77,103.4 |
| Stop-loss | 78,020 |
| Take-profit 1 | 76,429.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 75,980 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,161.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.08% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h EMA bear_aligned with ADX ~28 but slope -4.7 (fading), 4h regime tagged bear_trend yet mtf_alignment mixed 2/4, choppiness 40, ER10/ER30 near-zero (0.04/0.03 net-nowhere), Hurst 0.49, HMM calm — a bear-labeled 1h embedded in choppy, mean-reverting tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh downside impulse (net -2.1%/4h) with taker 0.85 (sellers), agg OI -3.5% and oi_momentum accelerating_down, price -4% from 5d high — the near-term energy leans SHORT even though rolling z is already -1.55. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — 1h bear EMA stack + accelerating_down OI + sub-1 taker ratio + agg OI bleed all point down, trend-aligned with the 1h/4h bear label. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -1.55, RSI 5m 26.9 oversold, and top-trader pos ratio 2.1 long — a reflexive oversold bounce that reclaims the recent range would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,103; stop above the local structure / prior consolidation at 78,020 (~1.19% risk, within 24h RV of ~1.36% traversal); TP1 stretch at 75,980 (~1.46% reward, R:R ~1.23, inside clamps) targeting a push toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum but stretched/oversold cuts both ways — modest edge with real bounce risk.
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