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BTCUSD short — 13 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 76,708.1 and stopped out at 77,780 after 17.5 hours, closing at -1.40%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 09:41 |
| Entry | 76,708.1 |
| Stop-loss | 77,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 75,929.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 75,410 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,780 |
| Realized P&L | -1.40% |
| Time open | 17.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned, 4h mixed), 1h ADX 15.4 but slope +5.9 firming, choppiness 39.6 (edge of trend), ER_10 0.62/ER_30 0.28, Hurst 0.23 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a soft bearish downtrend firming on lower TFs but stretched. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow leans DOWN — net -0.75%/4h, -0.80%/24h, taker 0.67 (heavy sell last hour), agg_OI -0.15 (shorts pressing as price falls), bear EMA stack on 5m/15m/1h. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF-aligned momentum + flow — fresh negative 4h/24h momentum with 1h ADX rising and bearish EMA stack, price -3.7% from 5d high and 24h RV in only 13th pctile (room to move); short is trend-aligned. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 26.9 (oversold), price sits +0.22% off 5d/20d/90d low, z-score -1.69, top-trader pos ratio 2.22 heavily long — a mean-revert bounce off the low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 76,708; stop above recent structure at 77,780 (~1.4% risk, within realized range); target the 5d-low breakdown at 75,410 (~1.7% reward, ~1.2x risk, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: firming bear momentum favors continuation but oversold-at-lows raises bounce odds — p_tp1 42, p_sl 35, p_expire 23.
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