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ETHUSD short — 13 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,484.1 and hit its target at 2,463.2 after 4 hours, closing at +0.84%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 09:26 |
| Entry | 2,484.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,517.9 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,463.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,449.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,463.2 |
| Realized P&L | +0.84% |
| Time open | 4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h bull, 4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 17.1 slope +5.3 (weak but rising), ADX-20 15.3, ER-10 0.72 but ER-30 0.22 (short-frame clean-down, longer nets nowhere), choppiness 33 (leaning trend), Hurst 0.26 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-ADX chop tape currently selling off, all net moves negative (-1.5% 4h/-1.8% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: momentum is one-directional down right now (net_move negative across 4h/12h/24h, taker 0.70 sell-heavy, OI z -4.05 accelerating_down) but oversold RSIs (5m 26.7, 15m 17.3, 1h 29.6) and Hurst 0.26 mean-reversion argue a bounce — two-sided, but the fresh sell momentum + OI unwind + sell-side takers gives a modest short lean into the down-move rather than catching a knife. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — oi_5m_z -4.05, accelerating_down, oi_24h -1.9%, taker 0.70 and last hour 0.6961 all sell-side, riding the -1.5% 4h leg lower; 5m/15m EMA bear-aligned aligns short on the immediate frame. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSIs + mean-reverting Hurst + top-trader pos ratio 1.27 long could spark a sharp reversal bounce reclaiming 2500. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2484.14, stop above the intraday reclaim at 2517.9 (~1.36% / within ~0.6x the 24h realized range), target the 5d-low zone stretch at 2449.3 (~1.4% below, R:R ~1.03, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold caveat caps p_tp1; give p_tp1 43, p_sl 37, p_expire 20.
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