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BTCUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 75,886.7 and stopped out at 76,920 after 2.8 hours, closing at -1.36%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 14:43 |
| Entry | 75,886.7 |
| Stop-loss | 76,920 |
| Take-profit 1 | 75,060.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 74,510 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 76,920 |
| Realized P&L | -1.36% |
| Time open | 2.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bear-aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), 1h ADX 29.2 slope +3.1 (trend firming), choppiness 33.9 <38 (trending), ER_10 0.79 (clean recent one-way down) but ER_30 0.29 and Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting longer-horizon), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a firming bearish down-impulse in a low-vol tape sitting at fresh lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans SHORT — net -1.49%/4h, -2.57%/12h, -3.31%/24h fresh downside, price sitting at 5d/20d/90d low (dist_from_low +0.00), rolling z -2.23 (stretched down). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — MTF bear stack + firming ADX + fresh 24h lows + taker 0.926 (sell tilt last hour) all point down; agg_OI -2.0% with price falling = longs unwinding, healthy for continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold across all TFs (1h 21.9, 15m 20.5), z -2.23, price AT the low, and top-trader pos ratio 2.47 (heavily long) — a mean-reversion bounce off oversold extreme would invalidate; keeps confidence moderate not high. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 75,886.70; stop above the last intraday shelf at 76,920 (structural invalidation, ~1.36% = ~0.49x atr_pct span, reasonable for a firming trend); stretch target down at 74,510 (~1.81% = ~1.33x stop distance, R:R ~1.3, inside 4% clamp, reachable given avg 24h traversal 0.92% and current -3.3% impulse). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh trend but oversold-stretched, so meaningful bounce risk — p_tp1 44, p_sl 33, p_expire 23.
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