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SOLUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 98.9513 and hit its target at 96.75 after 4.1 hours, closing at +2.22%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 14:43 |
| Entry | 98.9513 |
| Stop-loss | 100.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 97.6305 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 96.75 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 96.75 |
| Realized P&L | +2.22% |
| Time open | 4.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear_aligned, 4h mixed; 1h ADX 20.3 slope +2.3 (firming into trend-tier), ADX-20 14.1, ER10 0.62 (clean recent one-way down) / ER30 0.23, choppiness 37.4 (trending edge), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a firming low-grade downtrend drifting into the 5d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — fresh net -1.95% 4h / -2.95% 12h / -2.62% 24h downside, sitting +0.32% off the 5d/20d/90d low with negative momentum still intact. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.79, agg_oi -5.4%, oi_change_recent_half -3.3%) = shorts pressing as price falls, taker 1h 0.925 sell-tilted with a 24h history skewed <1.0, funding negative/z -1.6 unwinding — a genuine bear-drift confluence trend-aligned on the fast TFs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold across 5m/15m/1h (22-27) and z_score -1.79, sitting just above the 90d low — an oversold reclaim bounce is the clear risk, and top-trader pos ratio 2.12 (heavily long) leans against the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent intraday swing / EMA reclaim at 100.85 (~1.9% above mark, ~1.0x atr context); target down toward a probe of the 5d low zone at 96.75 (~2.23% below mark), R:R ~1.15, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.62% and rv 46.8. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + heavy top-trader long tilt cap the short's edge, so a healthy expire slice.
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