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BTCUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 75,469.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 76,195.5 with a price move of -0.96%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 18:43 |
| Entry | 75,469.7 |
| Stop-loss | 76,850 |
| Take-profit 1 | 74,527.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 73,900 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 76,195.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.96% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (15m/1h bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed), 1h ADX 31.9 slope +0.8 (trend firming mildly), choppiness 50.7 (mid), ER_10 0.38 / ER_30 0.27 (modest efficiency), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a bearish drift with firming 1h trend but stretched to fresh lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans SHORT on trend but heavily conflicted — net -4.7%/24h, -2.3%/12h, price at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist -0.0% at lows), rolling z -2.59 (2.6σ below 20d mean — deeply oversold), RV pctile 89.8%; the trend is down but the stretch is extreme. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned SHORT is the higher-TF side (15m/1h bear EMA, ADX>30 firming, fresh 20d/90d lows, oi accelerating_up into the drop = fresh shorts pressing), but the z-score of -2.59 and Hurst 0.39 argue mean-reversion risk against chasing. 4. PRE-MORTEM: at a -2.6σ extreme with taker ratio 1.12 (buyers stepping in), top-trader pos ratio 2.44 long, and agg long-liq share 0.67, a violent short-cover bounce would invalidate a fresh short; that reclaim risk keeps confidence modest. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: short entry 75,469.69, stop above the recent breakdown shelf at 76,850 (~1.83% — near the 4h atr 1.2% * ~1.5, respects the elevated RV), take_profit_1 at 73,900 (~2.08% down, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps) targeting continuation toward the next round support after fresh lows. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors down but extreme oversold + long positioning caps edge; p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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