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ETHUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,373.3 and stopped out at 2,413.5 after 11 minutes, closing at -1.69%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 18:43 |
| Entry | 2,373.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,413.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,341.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,321 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,413.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.69% |
| Time open | 11 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned, 4h mixed; 1h ADX 24.8 slope +3.9 (firming trend), ER-10 0.51 semi-clean, choppiness 42 (leaning-trend), Hurst 0.30 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a firming bear_trend in a fresh downside impulse (-1.35% 4h, -4.44% 12h, -6.43% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: short — trend, momentum and OI unwind all point down, though deeply oversold RSI (26-30 across all TFs) and z-score -3.83 warn of stretch. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on 3/4 TFs with firming ADX, agg OI -7.8% and Binance OI z -2.5 (leveraged unwind confirming the leg down), funding deeply negative (funding_z -2.43) but momentum still unwinding not bottoming. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 26-30 oversold + z-score -3.83 + at 5d/20d/90d low means an oversold snapback reclaim above ~2410 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2373.29, stop 2413.50 (above the recent breakdown pivot, ~1.7% = within 1h atr 1.18% x ~1.5 given high RV), TP1 2321.00 stretch (~2.2% down, RR ~1.30) toward the next structural leg, reachable given 6.4% daily range and 1.30% avg 24h traversal in a live impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold stretch caps it; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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