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BTCUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 82,795.3 and hit its target at 82,090.1 after 1.6 hours, closing at +0.85%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 12:35 |
| Entry | 82,795.3 |
| Stop-loss | 83,790 |
| Take-profit 1 | 82,090.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 81,620 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 82,090.1 |
| Realized P&L | +0.85% |
| Time open | 1.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 2/4 all EMA stacks mixed, 1h ADX 13.0 slope -0.38, adx_20 10.6, choppiness 56 / ER_30 0.20, Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a low-ADX chop regime with a soft downward drift (net moves -0.73/-0.71/-0.65% across 4h/12h/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT lean — net moves negative across all horizons, OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.58, agg_oi_24h -3.0%, oi_change_24h -3.6%) as price falls = longs unwinding, price sits -1.65% below 5d high and z_score -0.60. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow/OI cluster — OI declining into a lower price with decelerating momentum confirms distribution, and funding z (-0.57 Binance / -0.77 agg) is unwinding not building, so no squeeze fuel underneath; this aligns with the down-drift. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker ratio 1.107 (latest buy-tilt) and top-trader pos ratio 1.49 (firmly long) are the counter-signals — if bids defend the 5d low (+1.71% below) and reclaim, this fades fast. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 82,795; stop above the recent 4h swing/structure at 83,790 (~1.2% ≈ 0.5x the 24h RV range); stretch target toward the 5d-low zone at 81,620 (~1.42% down), RR ~1.18, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.02%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with weak downside lean — meaningful expire probability given dead ADX and the long-leaning top traders.
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