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BTCUSD short — 30 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,118.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,471 with a price move of -0.46%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-30 13:57 |
| Entry | 77,118.9 |
| Stop-loss | 78,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 76,087.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 75,400 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,471 |
| Realized P&L | -0.46% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all EMA bear-aligned), 1h ADX 32.4 slope +2.1 (trend firming), 4h ADX 24.6, choppiness 53.3 (middling), ER_10 0.43/ER_30 0.23, Hurst 0.37 (persistent-down), HMM calm — a genuine, still-firming bear trend making fresh 5d/20d lows (-5.6%/-9.0%), z_score -2.58 (deeply extended). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear SHORT lean — net moves negative across 4h/24h (-0.59%/-3.84%), price at 5d/20d/90d lows, trend firming. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-alignment cluster is dominant — full_bearish 4/4 with rising 1h ADX and Hurst 0.37 persistent-down; agg_oi_24h -4.88% (OI bleeding as price falls = longs capitulating), RV in 94th pctile confirms active downside expansion. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold (z -2.58, RSI 4h 32.8, fear 30) plus top_trader_pos_ratio 1.72 long and taker 1.16 buy-skew warn of a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim of ~78,600 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,118.92; stop above recent reclaim pivot at 78,720 (~2.08% / within RV band); stretch target 75,560 (~2.02% below, ~0.97x stop distance, R:R ~0.97... adjust) — set TP 75,480 to clear R:R >=1.0 toward the next structural low leg. 6. EXPECTATION: trend firm but extended with mean-reversion risk and buy-skewed takers temper conviction.
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