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DOGEUSD short — 30 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.075475 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.0754 with a price move of +0.10%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-30 13:57 |
| Entry | 0.075475 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07765 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.07408 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07315 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.0754 |
| Realized P&L | +0.10% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish (all TFs bear_aligned), 1h ADX 30.0 slope -1.04 (genuine trend, mildly fading), choppiness 44.2 (mid-range, not strongly trending anymore), ER-10 0.18 / ER-30 0.13 (very noisy, path nets little), Hurst 0.40 (mean-reverting lean), HMM calm 99.6%, RV-24h 95.9th pctile (very high vol) — a bearish structure but a choppy, low-efficiency path that has already dumped -4.8% in 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: bearish — full MTF bear stack, OI bleeding -14.4% (shorts/longs both unwinding, agg_oi -14.4%), taker ratio 0.86 (sellers dominant), funding still positive (longs paying) with z +1.22 — trend-aligned short bias despite exhausted feel. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the full 4/4 bearish MTF stack plus sustained net sell-side taker flow (0.86, recent hourly ratios clustered sub-1), sitting just +2% off 20d/90d lows with fresh downside momentum (net_move_24h -4.8%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +2% off 90d low with rolling z -1.64 (deeply oversold) and top-trader pos ratio 3.4 (heavily long) — a reflexive bounce from a washed-out level would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.075475; stop beyond the recent intraday reclaim level at 0.077650 (~2.88% above, within the high-vol 24h range); stretch target at 0.073150 (~3.08% below, near a push toward the 90d low), R:R ~1.07, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + fading ADX + heavy top-trader longs temper the short, but trend/flow favor continuation.
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