DOGEUSD long — 20 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.082799 and stopped out at 0.08055 after 1.6 hours, closing at -2.72%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-20 16:56 |
| Entry | 0.082799 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08055 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.08466 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.0859 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.38 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.08055 |
| Realized P&L | -2.72% |
| Time open | 1.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 63 with +3.6 slope (very strong, still-strengthening trend), ER-10 0.94 / choppiness 25.7 (extremely clean one-way move), Hurst 0.52, HMM calm 100% — a powerful, near-vertical upside impulse but deeply extended (z-score +5.79, RV 100th pctile, all TFs RSI 80-92 overbought). 2. LEAN CHECK: unambiguously long tape — net +6.8%/4h, +13.7%/24h, sitting AT 5d/20d/90d high (+0.000), OI +14.5%/24h with oi_5m_z +3.30 and momentum accelerating_up, top-trader pos ratio 3.34. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — full MTF bull stack with rising ADX, accelerating OI on the way up, and top-traders heavily long; this exact setup has won 5-for-5 in this regime recently on DOGE. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme overextension (RSI 89 1h, z +5.79, taker 1h dipped to 0.897 with funding_momentum negative) means a fast mean-reversion snap could hit the stop before continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent 4h consolidation shelf at 0.08055 (invalidates the impulse without being tagged by normal 1h ATR ~1.4%), ~2.7% risk; stretch TP at 0.08590 (~3.7% above, ~1.35x risk, inside 4% clamp) — reachable given 24h traversal has been +13.7% and avg 24h move elevated. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but overextension raises reversal odds; p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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