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DOGEUSD long — 22 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.100389 and stopped out at 0.09755 after 5.5 hours, closing at -2.83%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 04:53 |
| Entry | 0.100389 |
| Stop-loss | 0.09755 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.102406 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.10375 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.09755 |
| Realized P&L | -2.83% |
| Time open | 5.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 64.5 but slope -0.31 (very strong trend, now barely fading), ER-10 0.05 (recent path extremely choppy/netting nowhere) vs ER-30 0.44, choppiness 49.8 neutral, Hurst 0.68 persistent, HMM volatile 0.76 — an extremely strong up-leg that has become extended and stalled near-term. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean persists — trend, OI (+34% 24h) and top-trader ratio 3.3 all point up; but extension warnings are stacking. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is trend + flow — full bull stack with OI building (+34% 24h, oi_15m_z +1.56) and top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 3.33), taker 1.18 buy-tilted; this is the trend-aligned side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RV at 100th pctile, 4h RSI 77 overbought, rolling z +3.08, ER-10 collapsed to 0.05 and OI momentum decelerating — a sharp mean-reversion pullback from this extended top would invalidate; last same-regime call at 04:08 hit stop -3.68%. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.100389, stop below the recent stall/consolidation shelf at 0.09755 (~2.83% risk, ~1x rv-scaled 24h atr for this vol); stretch TP at 0.10375 (~3.35% / ~1.18x risk), just past the 5d/20d high resistance where the thesis targets a breakout continuation, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extreme extension and collapsed short-term efficiency cap the edge — modest long lean with meaningful reversal risk.
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