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DOGEUSD long — 3 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.075354 and stopped out at 0.07425 after 10.8 hours, closing at -1.47%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-03 13:38 |
| Entry | 0.075354 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07425 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.076288 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07691 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.41 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07425 |
| Realized P&L | -1.47% |
| Time open | 10.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 mixed (5m bull, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bear_aligned), 1h ADX 23.7 slope -0.93 (borderline trend, fading), ADX-20 20.1, choppiness 45.2 (mid), ER-10 0.42 / ER-30 0.001 (recent noise that nets to nothing over 30 bars), Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.99%, RV-24h 65.8th pctile — a soft/exhausting bear tape with mean-reverting character near lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: genuinely two-sided-ish but a few threads lean long: net_move_4h +1.41% / net_12h +1.28% (recent bounce), price at z-20d -0.87 and +2.08% off 5d/20d/90d low (stretched down, reclaiming), top-trader pos ratio 2.82 (heavily long) and OI building (+3.8% 24h, oi_z +1.5) into the bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: counter-trend long — the reclaim is live, with positive 4h/12h net moves lifting off the lows while top-traders sit 2.8x long and OI expands, Hurst mean-reverting from a stretched -0.87 z; this fits DOGE's documented chop-era pattern where the one chop long won (+2.27%) and shorts near lows got stopped (three recent short losses all near lows). 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker ratio 0.85 (sellers dominant last hour) and the 1h/4h EMA stack still bear — a failure to hold above ~0.0750 flips this back down. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the reclaim pivot / near the 5d low at 0.07425 (≈1.5% risk, within ~0.5-1.5x the 4.1% daily range); stretch target 0.07691 toward the 15m/5m bull stack and prior supply (≈1.0x stop distance, R:R ≈1.0, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: counter-trend in soft chop — modest edge, meaningful expire odds given choppiness and low 24h volume.
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