DOGEUSD short — 22 Jul 2026 (hit target)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.072798 and hit its target at 0.071719 after 21.8 hours, closing at +1.48%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-22 14:50 |
| Entry | 0.072798 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07425 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.071719 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.071 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.071719 |
| Realized P&L | +1.48% |
| Time open | 21.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 16.3 and falling (slope -0.79), 4h ADX only 11.7, Hurst 0.38 mean-reverting, ER_30 0.13, choppiness 48 — this is a low-ADX transitional/chop tape with a soft bear tilt (15m and 4h bear-aligned, net -0.95% over 12h). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — bear-aligned 4h/15m EMA stacks, taker 0.897 sell-skewed, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -0.72, oi_change_recent_half -1.6%) confirms selling into weakness, price sitting near lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI unwinding into a falling price (accelerating_down) with sell-skewed takers is trend-continuation, aligned with the 4h bear stack; the strong short WR (43%) and prior DOGE short wins reinforce the side, though top-trader ratio 3.3/2.6 long is a counter-signal and funding is mildly positive. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above the 5d-high proximity (mark near 20d/90d low at +2.5%) with OI re-expanding would flip this into a squeeze against the sell-skew — DOGE is at range lows and Hurst<0.5 warns of a bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.072798; stop above intraday structure at 0.07425 (~2.0%, beyond a reclaim); TP at the recent lows extension 0.07100 (~2.4%, ~1.2x stop distance), reachable given avg_move_24h 1.17% but attainable in a bear leg over 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: low ADX + Hurst mean-reversion means high expire odds; p_tp1 37, p_sl 34, p_expire 29.
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