DOGEUSD short — 28 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.069833 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.07069 with a price move of -1.23%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-28 01:33 |
| Entry | 0.069833 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07185 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.068018 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.066808 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.07069 |
| Realized P&L | -1.23% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: EMA stacks bear-aligned on 5m/15m/4h with 1h mixed, ADX 24.8 rising (+5.9 slope), choppiness 36.8 (trending), Hurst 0.47 near-random — a genuine bear trend down with accelerating momentum, not chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: net -2.9%/4h, -4.1%/12h, -4.2%/24h, OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.08), funding unwinding negative — clear short lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short with OI falling into falling price (shorts/longs unwinding, continuation not squeeze fuel), taker ratio 0.90 (sellers dominant), Fear 29 — the dominant bear stack is the disciplined side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 23 and 1h RSI 26 are deeply oversold with z-score -1.44 and top-traders very long (pos ratio 2.31) — a mean-reversion bounce off the lows is the real risk; only +1.6% above 90d low. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.069833, stop above the 4h structure/recent swing at 0.07185 (beyond the bounce zone ~2.9%), TP1 stretch at 0.06665 (~4.5% down, ~1.4R) toward continuation below recent lows, reachable given rv_24h 61% and avg 24h traversal 1.85%+ current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-bounce risk tempers the trend edge.
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