DOGEUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.070408 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.07016 with a price move of +0.35%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 03:26 |
| Entry | 0.070408 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07172 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.069473 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.06885 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.07016 |
| Realized P&L | +0.35% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (only 15m bear-aligned, 5m/1h/4h mixed; alignment 0/4), 1h ADX 28.3 but slope -1.1 (fading), ER-10 0.17/ER-30 0.25, choppiness 39.4, Hurst 0.44 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — transitional, low-conviction chop with a downside tilt over 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: net -2.59%/24h and -0.72%/12h, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.16, agg_oi -3.45%), funding gone negative (agg_funding_z -1.78) — a leveraged unwind favoring the short side, but a fresh +0.89%/4h bounce and taker ratio 1.40 muddy the near-term. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the dominant cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI with negative funding z-scores signals longs bleeding out, trend-aligned with the 24h down-drift; extreme long-lopsided top-trader ratio (pos 2.87) is fuel for further downside if it unwinds. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the fresh 4h bounce (+0.89%) with taker 1.40 continues and reclaims the 5d-high area, flipping momentum up. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.070408, stop above the recent bounce/structure at 0.07172 (~1.87%, within 24h rv), target the 5d-low zone at 0.06885 (~2.21% down, R:R ~1.18). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum is two-sided so meaningful expire risk.
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