ETHUSD long — 13 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,898.4 and stopped out at 1,874.5 after 6.1 hours, closing at -1.26%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 05:26 |
| Entry | 1,898.4 |
| Stop-loss | 1,874.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,915.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,927 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,874.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.26% |
| Time open | 6.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (0/4 alignment — 5m mixed, 15m bull, 1h bear, 4h mixed), ADX_1h 15.4 slope -1.17 (weak/fading), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), choppiness 55.6, ER-30 0.12 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a low-conviction, mean-reverting chop with a fresh 4h upward pop (+1.08%). 2. LEAN CHECK: two competing reads but a modest long lean emerges — fresh +1.08% 4h momentum, taker 1.36 buy-skewed, OI accelerating up (oi_5m_z +3.12, oi_15m_z +3.58, agg_oi +2.30), top-traders 1.40 pos-ratio long — but 5m/15m RSI overbought (75/73) argues near-term exhaustion. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the OI/flow cluster is the strongest — accelerating OI on a fresh upward impulse with buy-skewed takers and top-trader long positioning suggests fresh long entry driving price, aligning with the 15m bull stack; this is a momentum-continuation long into the 5d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: overbought 5m/15m RSI + mean-reverting Hurst + price only -1.5% from 5d high means the pop stalls and reverts, a classic ETH short-record trap (this asset is 44% wr, worst in universe, and the last 6 attributions were all shorts). 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1898.39, stop below the 4h reclaim/1h structure at 1874.5 (~1.26% risk, ~0.8x rv_24h-implied 24h range, honest invalidation of the up-impulse), stretch TP at 1927.0 (~1.51% reward, R:R ~1.2, structural push through the 5d high at -1.53%) — inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought + mean-reverting tape tempers p_tp1; chop regime historically expired/lost here.
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