DOGEUSD short — 23 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.089618 and stopped out at 0.09215 after 5.4 hours, closing at -2.83%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-23 04:57 |
| Entry | 0.089618 |
| Stop-loss | 0.09215 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.087747 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.0865 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.09215 |
| Realized P&L | -2.83% |
| Time open | 5.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4, regime transitional; 1h ADX 15.1 slope -2.5 (fading to chop) but 4h ADX 56.2 still strong; ER-30 0.12, choppiness 55, Hurst 0.40 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 96.5% — a 4h uptrend that has just cracked hard, price -9.2%/24h and -4.7%/4h, a fresh downside break of the prior extended-long regime. 2. LEAN CHECK: net-bear near-term tape (24h -9.2%, sitting at 5d/20d/90d lows, all extrema now to the downside) — lean short despite the standing 4h bull structure that is now unwinding. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + flow cluster — hourly taker ratio last 3 buckets 0.85/0.81/0.79 (persistent sell pressure), OI -14.3%/24h with decelerating momentum (longs de-leveraging into the drop, not new shorts), funding still positive z +0.78 (crowded longs still to flush), agg 4h liqs 99% long — the flush isn't done. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 4.6 (very long) plus 4h EMA still bull-aligned means a sharp mean-reversion bounce off the 90d low would invalidate; a reclaim of ~0.0915 with taker>1 kills the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.089618; stop above the near-term reclaim/invalidation at 0.09215 (~2.8%, within the elevated RV-24h at 117th pctile of the asset's own range); take_profit_1 at 0.08650 (~3.3% down), R:R ~1.16, a reachable continuation toward the next round support given avg 24h traversal 3.9% and today's 9%+ range. 6. EXPECTATION: strong sell flow but deeply oversold with heavy long positioning that can snap back — modest edge, meaningful bounce risk.
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