ETHUSD short — 23 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,382.6 and stopped out at 2,428 after 6.4 hours, closing at -1.91%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-23 04:57 |
| Entry | 2,382.6 |
| Stop-loss | 2,428 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,348 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,325 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,428 |
| Realized P&L | -1.91% |
| Time open | 6.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (0/4 EMA votes), ADX_1h 23.9 slope +0.5 (weak-but-present trend, barely strengthening), ER-10 0.39 / ER-30 0.46 (noisy), choppiness 49 (mid), Hurst 0.60 mildly trending, HMM calm — but the tape just took a hard -5.2% 24h leg down while 1h/4h EMA stacks still read bull_aligned (lagging); net downside momentum dominates now. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — 24h/-5.2%, 4h/-1.98%, 12h/-1.65% all negative, funding still elevated (z +1.70) meaning longs not yet flushed, OI bleeding (-6% 24h, oi_5m_z -2.6), taker 0.87 sell-heavy — momentum and flow both point down despite lagging bull EMA labels. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster is the strongest — falling OI + persistently sub-1.0 taker ratio + elevated-but-still-positive funding (z 1.70) signals crowded longs unwinding into a downtrend, and top-trader pos ratio is fading (4h chg -0.06); the drop has room before longs capitulate. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 23.9 deeply oversold + 5m RSI 31.8 warns of a sharp mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim back above ~2,420 with buy-heavy takers invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2,382.59; stop_loss 2,428 just beyond the reclaim zone (~1.9% risk, ~0.5x rv_24h range — tight given oversold bounce risk); take_profit_1 2,325 at the next structural shelf (~2.4% below, R:R ~1.26, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 3.7%). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold conditions temper the short, so meaningful bounce risk keeps p_sl elevated.
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