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DOGEUSD short — 11 Sep 2026 (expired)

This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.084503 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.08501 with a price move of -0.60%, and does not count in the win rate.

AssetDOGEUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-09-11 18:12
Entry0.084503
Stop-loss0.08635
Take-profit 10.083271
Take-profit 2 (stretch)0.08245
Reward:risk at entry1.11
Outcomeexpired flat
Close price0.08501
Realized P&L-0.60%
Time open24 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 1h EMA bear_aligned with 1h ADX 37.3 but slope -6.7 (strong trend fading hard), 5m/15m/4h mixed → mtf 2/4 transitional; ER-10 0.05 / ER-30 0.06 (path nets essentially nowhere = chop), choppiness 42 (edge of trending), Hurst 0.48, HMM calm 99.97% — a fading 1h down-structure stalling into chop near 5d lows (z -0.94). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 1h bear structure intact, net_4h -2.26% shows fresh downside momentum, taker ratio 0.765 (sellers dominant this hour), OI accelerating_down with oi_5m_z -3.99 (longs bleeding out). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow cluster — OI momentum accelerating_down + agg_oi_24h -4.69% + taker 0.765 + net_4h -2.26% — points down and is trend-aligned with the bear 1h EMA stack; prior analysts repeatedly won shorts on this exact fading-bear-into-chop setup on DOGE. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 3.99 (heavily long) plus deeply oversold conditions and ADX fading could spark a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low (+1.97% away), invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.084503; stop above recent intraday structure at 0.086350 (~2.2% risk, ~1x the atr/rv range); take_profit_1 stretch at 0.082450 (~2.4% reward, RR ~1.1) toward the 5d-low retest zone, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend + chop caps conviction — p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.

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