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DOGEUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.080824 and hit its target at 0.07958 after 3.4 hours, closing at +1.54%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 18:58 |
| Entry | 0.080824 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08245 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.07958 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07875 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.07958 |
| Realized P&L | +1.54% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned (4h mixed), 1h ADX 30.1 slope +5.2 (trend firming), ER-10 0.41/ER-30 0.28, choppiness 41.6 (trending edge), Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.97% — a firming down-leg, price z -1.86 sitting exactly at 5d/20d/90d lows (0.00% off all lows). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — bearish EMA stack across three TFs, firming ADX, fresh 24h low, hourly taker 0.769 (sellers pressing). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + structure — bear stack with ADX firming (30.1, +5.2 slope) and price breaking to fresh lows with net_24h -4.99% confirms a live down-leg; OI accelerating_down (oi_momentum_state) with agg funding z -1.63 unwinding supports continuation not squeeze. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 3.35 heavily long and Hurst 0.38 mean-reverting + z -1.86 stretched — a snap-back reclaim above 0.0824 would invalidate the down-leg. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 0.08320 just above recent intraday reclaim shelf (~3.2% / above the 4h swing); take_profit_1 0.07875 at continuation extension into fresh-low territory, ~2.5% below entry, R:R ~0.78 — tighten stop to 0.08245 for R:R >=1. Stop 0.08245 (1.75%), target 0.07875 (2.5%) gives R:R ~1.44, within 1.5x clamp and inside atr/rv reach. 6. EXPECTATION: firming trend at fresh lows favors continuation but oversold z and long top-traders temper.
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