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ETHUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,403.9 and hit its target at 2,376.9 after 22.4 hours, closing at +1.12%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 19:13 |
| Entry | 2,403.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,447.2 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,376.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,359 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.04 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,376.9 |
| Realized P&L | +1.12% |
| Time open | 22.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned, 4h mixed; 1h ADX 26.6 slope +3.6 (firming), choppiness 40 (leaning-trend), Hurst 0.31 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a firming bear_trend in a fresh -5.2% 24h impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — trend, OI unwind and taker sell-pressure all point down; oversold RSI is the only caution, not a reclaim. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.68, agg_oi -8.1%), taker 1h 0.86 sell-tilted, and funding deeply negative (z -2.43) unwinding — a leveraged flush lower with EMA stack confirming, RSI 31 not yet reclaiming. 4. PRE-MORTEM: at +0.15% off the 90d low with z-score -2.85 and RSI 31, a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming ~2440 would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop 2447.20 above the 4h structure and prior-hour swing (~1.8% risk, ~0.7x rv range); target 2359.00 into next support below the 5d low (~1.86% reward, R:R ~1.03, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong momentum but very stretched/oversold caps p_tp1.
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