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DOGEUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.079969 and hit its target at 0.078698 after 19.2 hours, closing at +1.59%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 22:28 |
| Entry | 0.079969 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08172 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.078698 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07785 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.078698 |
| Realized P&L | +1.59% |
| Time open | 19.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned (4h mixed but RSI 27.6 oversold), 1h ADX 39.0 slope +6.7 (trend firming hard), ADX-20 28.4, ER-10 0.47/ER-30 0.39, choppiness 44.4 (trending edge), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.97% — a firming down-leg, price z -2.02 sitting right at 5d/20d/90d lows (+0.43% off all lows). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — bearish EMA stack across three TFs with strongly firming 1h ADX and a fresh -4.8% 24h leg; this exact setup won three times recently on DOGE. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the strongest cluster is the down-momentum (net_24h -4.79%, net_12h -3.37%, net_4h -0.95%) confirmed by accelerating_down OI momentum (oi_15m_z -1.65, oi_change_recent_half -4.75%) — leveraged longs unwinding into the drop. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is z -2.02 at 90d lows with 1h RSI 30.5 and 4h RSI 27.6 oversold, and top-traders sit heavily long (pos ratio 3.21) — a mean-reversion bounce off the low is the invalidation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.079969; stop 0.081720 above the recent intraday reclaim shelf (~2.2% / ~1.3x atr_pct_1h) beyond invalidation; take_profit_1 0.077850 at the next leg-extension below the 90d low, ~2.65% away, R:R ≈ 1.2, reachable given avg 24h traversal 1.82% and this is an extended day. 6. EXPECTATION: firming trend but stretched/oversold at lows caps the read.
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