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SOLUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 96.7646 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 97.969 with a price move of -1.24%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 22:13 |
| Entry | 96.7646 |
| Stop-loss | 98.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 95.3458 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 94.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.08 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 97.969 |
| Realized P&L | -1.24% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear_aligned, 4h mixed; 1h ADX 32.1 slope +4.99 (firming, genuine trend-tier), ADX-20 22.4, ER10 0.54 (recent path fairly clean down)/ER30 0.41, choppiness 46, Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.9999 — a firming downtrend sitting at the 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean but tempered — price is -5.96% 24h, RSI 1h 27.8 oversold, z-score -2.80 (deeply stretched below 20d mean), sitting +0.16% off the 90d low; the trend is down but the counter-argument for exhaustion is real. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — strong bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h with ADX firming to 32 and slope positive, OI decelerating/bleeding (oi_change -5.34%, agg_oi -3.91%, oi_15m_z -0.69), taker 0.766 sell-tilted and fresh net -1.39% 4h/-4.13% 12h; the SOLUSD short template has won repeatedly in this exact regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 27.8 oversold + z -2.80 at 90d low is prime mean-revert territory — a reclaim of the broken 5d-low shelf with a taker flip would invalidate; top-trader pos ratio 2.26 (heavily long) is a contra-flag. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 96.76; stop above the intraday reclaim shelf at 98.95 (2.26% / ~fits within rv/atr), target the next structural leg toward 94.40 (2.44% below, R:R ~1.08, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend firming favors continuation but oversold stretch caps it.
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