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DOGEUSD short — 29 Sep 2026 (stopped out)

This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.092332 and stopped out at 0.09387 after 3.3 hours, closing at -1.67%.

AssetDOGEUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-09-29 02:38
Entry0.092332
Stop-loss0.09385
Take-profit 10.091203
Take-profit 2 (stretch)0.09045
Reward:risk at entry1.24
Outcomestopped out
Close price0.09387
Realized P&L-1.67%
Time open3.3 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA bear_aligned, 4h bull (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, regime bear_trend); 1h ADX 24.4 slope -0.28 (trending but fading), ER-10 0.36 / ER-30 0.21 (choppy path netting little), choppiness 60.6 right at the range-bound line, Hurst 0.60 mildly persistent, HMM calm 99.97% — a transitional/choppy structure with fresh near-term downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 24h -2.88%, 4h -1.35%, three lower TFs bear-stacked, OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -2.27, oi_momentum accelerating_down) as price falls = de-risking on the way down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow/structure — accelerating_down OI with negative net moves across 4h/24h and prior short attribution winning repeatedly here in this exact transitional tape; bear EMA stack on 5m/15m/1h aligns the side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio is heavily long (3.31) and funding is deeply negative (agg_z -0.99), a crowded-short setup that could squeeze up through the 5d low which sits right at mark (+0.27%) — a reclaim of ~0.0936 with momentum invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 0.092332; stop above the recent swing/4h reclaim at 0.09385 (~1.65% = ~0.6x rv-implied 4h span, structural); stretch target down at 0.09045 (~2.03% move, R:R ~1.2) toward the next support below the 5d low, reachable given avg 24h traversal 4.27%. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum favors down but crowded-short funding + top-trader longs + choppy ER cap conviction.

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