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DOGEUSD short — 3 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.093332 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.09308 with a price move of +0.27%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Entry | 0.093332 |
| Stop-loss | 0.09505 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.092272 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.091566 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.09308 |
| Realized P&L | +0.27% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, regime bear_trend); 1h ADX 24.9 slope -0.31 (above trend floor but fading), ADX-20 18, ER-10 0.32 / ER-30 0.10 (path nets little), choppiness 30.5 leaning-trend, Hurst 0.30 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.97% — a bearish-tilted transitional tape with recent downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: net -4.05% over 12h and bear-aligned 15m/1h favor the short side, though net_move_4h is +2.07% (a bounce) — tiebreak goes to the dominant downleg and bear EMA stack, short lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 15m/1h bear EMA stack + 12h -4% leg + taker ratio 0.85 (sellers), OI accelerating_down (-6.0% recent half, oi_5m_z -1.15) = positions bleeding out on the way down, flow and structure both lean lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI 70 overbought on a +2% 4h bounce plus top_trader_pos_ratio 3.83 (heavy long tilt) — if that bounce extends and reclaims the 5d-high zone, the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.093332; stop above the 4h bounce high / recent swing at 0.09505 (~1.84% / near one 1h ATR+ above, within range); stretch target toward the 5d-low area at 0.09165 (~1.80% down), R:R ~0.98→nudge target to 0.091566 for R:R ~1.0, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh bounce + overbought 5m + heavy top-trader longs cap downside odds; honest split with meaningful expire given choppy mean-reverting path.
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