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SLVONUSD short — 2 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on SLVONUSD entered at 55.0168 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 54.77 with a price move of +0.45%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SLVONUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 19:35 |
| Entry | 55.0168 |
| Stop-loss | 55.78 |
| Take-profit 1 | 54.4787 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 54.12 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 54.77 |
| Realized P&L | +0.45% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m mixed, 15m/1h/4h all bear-aligned), 1h ADX 12.5 slope +0.13 and ADX-20 9.4 (no 1h trend/chop), 4h ADX 28.6 (genuine 4h bear stack), choppiness 44.6, ER_10 0.14 / ER_30 0.07 (noisy path netting nowhere), Hurst 0.46, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a real 4h bear structure stalled into near-random 1h chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly bear-leaning — 15m/1h/4h EMA stacks all bear-aligned, net -1.03% 12h / -0.54% 24h, z-score -1.12 (price stretched below the 20d mean), 24h change negative on both token and XAG spot. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is HTF trend — three of four voting TFs bear-aligned with a genuine 4h ADX of 28.6, and this asset's own 30d track record overwhelmingly rewarded the short side in exactly this 4h-bear-stalled-into-1h-chop setup (five of six attributed signals shorted, three wins). 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of the 5d-high region near 55.4-55.7 with the fresh +1.44% 4h push and taker 1.13 continuing would flip the near-term tape bullish and invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 55.0168; stop_loss 55.78 beyond the recent swing/5d-high overhead (~1.39% away, within ~0.5-1.5x the 2.46% 7d daily range); take_profit_1 54.12 as the stretch toward the lower congestion, ~1.63% below entry giving R:R ~1.17, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: 4h bear bias but choppy 1h path with a fresh counter 4h push and high RV percentile — modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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