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DOGEUSD short — 8 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.084515 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.08521 with a price move of -0.82%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-08 22:05 |
| Entry | 0.084515 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08618 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.08327 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08244 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.08521 |
| Realized P&L | -0.82% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA bear-aligned (4h/5m mixed), 1h ADX 54.6 but slope -3.4 (very strong trend now fading), ER-10 0.28 / ER-30 0.26 (choppy path), choppiness 32 (<38 trending), Hurst 0.40 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a strong downtrend that is losing steam at fresh lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: net_move_24h -4.9%, 12h -3.3%, OI -14.4% on falling price (long capitulation), oi_momentum accelerating_down, 4h RSI 29 oversold, z_score -2.76 (deeply stretched below mean) — the downtrend is dominant evidence but momentum is decelerating (ADX slope -3.4, net_4h just turned +1.6%); short still favored but the extended, oversold, fading geometry caps conviction. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on 15m/1h, accelerating_down OI, agg_oi -14.4% capitulation, price pinned near 5d low; the dominant trend cluster plus flow cluster point down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the 4h RSI 29 oversold + z -2.76 + net_4h +1.6% bounce + ADX fading could trigger a mean-reversion snapback that reclaims the broken intraday level and stops a short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.084515, stop above the recent intraday pivot at 0.08618 (~1.96% / within 24h ATR of ~2.3%); stretch target down at 0.08244 (~2.45% below, reward:risk ~1.24, inside clamps) at the next structural low extension. 6. EXPECTATION: downtrend intact but oversold/decelerating — p_tp1 44, p_sl 37, p_expire 19.
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