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DOGEUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.082726 and hit its target at 0.081786 after 5.4 hours, closing at +1.14%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 13:20 |
| Entry | 0.082726 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08425 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.081786 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08116 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.081786 |
| Realized P&L | +1.14% |
| Time open | 5.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, but 1h ADX only 15.3 (slope +0.4, barely strengthening off a chop floor), 4h ADX 40 (genuinely trending), choppiness 43 (neutral), ER-10 0.59 / ER-30 0.24 (short-term moderately clean, longer noisy), Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.96% — bear-aligned EMA stack with a strong 4h trend but a weak/choppy 1h read. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean survives — EMA stack fully bearish, net_move_4h -1.9% / 12h -2.3% / 24h -1.8% all negative, OI bleeding (agg -0.36%, oi_15m_z -2.95, momentum accelerating_down), taker ratio 0.87 sell-skewed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full bearish MTF plus accelerating_down OI unwind and persistent sub-1.0 taker ratios confirm sellers in control; price sitting -1.9% on day near recent lows with downward momentum. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (27) and top-trader pos ratio 3.18 (heavily long + rising) argue for a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim of the 1h EMA with RSI unwinding would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.082726; stop above the recent 1h swing / EMA reclaim at 0.08425 (~1.84% / ~1x the 1h+ ATR and under 24h avg traversal of 2.5%); stretch target down at 0.08116 (~1.9%, R:R ~1.03) toward the 5d-low zone, well inside the 1.5x/4% clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold short-term RSI and crowded top-trader longs raise bounce odds, tempering conviction.
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