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PAXGUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,094.8 and stopped out at 4,138 after 10.9 hours, closing at -1.06%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 13:20 |
| Entry | 4,094.8 |
| Stop-loss | 4,138 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,067.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,049 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,138 |
| Realized P&L | -1.06% |
| Time open | 10.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Full bearish MTF (4/4 bear-aligned stack), 1h ADX 41.3 slope +5.7 (strong, firming downtrend), choppiness 37.4 (just into trending), ER-10 0.85/ER-30 0.54 (clean recent one-way move), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm but genuinely trending DOWN gold tape, spot gold -2.23% 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — spot gold decisively down, full bearish alignment, firming ADX. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 4/4 bearish stack with firming ADX 41 and spot gold -2.23% 24h is the dominant cluster; net_4h -1.22% shows momentum still extending down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across all TFs (1h 18.7, 15m 23.6) + rolling z -2.79 + 5d_low 0.000 (at the lows) risks a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim of ~4140 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4094.78, stop above recent structure at 4138 (≈1.06% / within gold rv range), take_profit_1 at 4049 (≈1.12% / RR ~1.05, inside clamps) — a reachable continuation level given avg 24h traversal ~0.49% but RV at 100th pctile. 6. EXPECTATION: trend/momentum favor continuation but oversold stretch + at-lows caps p_tp1; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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