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DOGEUSD short — 17 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.078364 and stopped out at 0.07985 after 4.1 hours, closing at -1.90%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-17 21:39 |
| Entry | 0.078364 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07985 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.077336 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07665 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07985 |
| Realized P&L | -1.90% |
| Time open | 4.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 29.5 slope +0.26 (genuine trend, barely strengthening), 4h ADX 61.7 (very strong 4h downtrend), choppiness 35.6 (<38 trending), ER-10 0.40 moderate, Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.97% — a clean, strong bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — price -2.8% on day, net_move_4h -1.30%/12h -2.50%/24h -2.58%, full bear stack, sitting at 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 4/4 bear MTF with 4h ADX 61.7 is the strongest cluster; agg funding z -1.46 (shorts not crowded, room to push), agg OI -2.9% (shorts leaning as price falls). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (5m 13.7, 15m 26.1), z-20d -2.21, and top-trader pos ratio 3.26 extremely long — a reflexive mean-revert bounce off the fresh low would invalidate; taker 1h 1.40 already shows short-term buying. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.078364, stop above the near structural pivot at 0.079850 (~1.9% / ~1x the 24h traversal of 1.98%); target the stretch down at 0.076650 (~2.2% below, R:R ~1.15) — an honest level the bear trend points to, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but oversold stretched into a low → modest edge.
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