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DOGEUSD short — 26 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.077956 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.07796 with a price move of -0.01%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-26 14:57 |
| Entry | 0.077956 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07942 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.07665 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07578 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.49 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.07796 |
| Realized P&L | -0.01% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 (5m/15m bull_aligned, 1h/4h bear_aligned — a direct conflict), 1h ADX 34.56 slope +0.89 (genuine trend, mildly strengthening), choppiness 61.0 (right at the range-bound threshold), ER-10 0.26 / ER-30 0.19 (noisy path netting little), Hurst 0.46 mild mean-revert, HMM calm 99.99% — an intact bear-aligned HTF stack with a fresh short-term bounce fighting it. 2. LEAN CHECK: genuinely conflicted — HTF (1h/4h) bear vs LTF (5m/15m) bull bounce, but the flow evidence tilts the tiebreak: OI z-scores +2.16/+2.75 with accelerating_up momentum and agg OI +0.996% on a +1.0% net-24h move = fresh longs building into a bounce, while top-trader pos ratio 3.13 is extremely crowded long and taker ratio 0.879 (<1) shows net selling pressure despite the up-tick — a crowded-long bounce inside a bear HTF stack, which historically resolves short on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short, trend-aligned with the 1h/4h bear stack; the strongest cluster is positioning — top-trader pos ratio 3.13 (extremely crowded long) plus taker 0.879 (sellers dominating the tape) plus fresh OI piled in on a modest bounce = overextended longs vulnerable to a flush back into the dominant bear trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: if price reclaims and holds above the 5d/20d high (~0.08356) with the 1h EMA stack flipping bull, the bounce is a real trend change and the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.077956; stop beyond the 4h swing / recent bounce high at 0.079420 (stop ~1.88% ≈ 0.4x rv_24h, snug); take_profit_1 the stretch down toward the 5d-low area at 0.075780 (~2.79% ≈ 1.49x the stop distance, inside the 1.5x and 4% clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal 1.85% and p90 range 6.6%). 6. EXPECTATION: bear-aligned HTF with crowded-long flow but a live LTF bounce fighting it → p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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