ETHUSD long — 22 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,931 and stopped out at 1,892 after 24 hours, closing at -2.02%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-22 14:50 |
| Entry | 1,931 |
| Stop-loss | 1,892 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,963.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,985 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.39 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,892 |
| Realized P&L | -2.02% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 25.7 (genuine trend) but slope fading -0.53, 4h RSI 63.9 leading, Hurst 0.525 (mild persistence), funding mildly positive with z -0.58 (not crowded) — a calm bull_trend, decelerating slightly. 2. LEAN CHECK: trend-aligned long is the coherent side — EMA stacks bull across all four TFs and OI is building; the tape is not two-sided so I take the long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.81, oi_15m_z +1.49, momentum accelerating_up, agg_oi_24h +0.74%) with top-trader position ratio 1.36 long-tilted and taker 1.21 buy-side — fresh money entering on the bull side, confirming the stack near the 5d/20d/90d high (only -0.57% away). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits right under the multi-window high with rolling_z +1.32 and ADX slope negative — a rejection at that high flips this into a failed breakout; ETH's own 30d WR is a weak 34.8%, so this is a modest-confidence lean. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent consolidation/1h structure at 1892 (beyond the swing, ~2.0% risk); stretch TP at 1985 clearing the 90d high toward the next round of resistance, ~2.8% reward → R:R ~1.4. Both reachable inside 24h given avg_move_pct_24h ~2.15% and rv 40%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but at a resistance test with fading ADX and poor asset base rate — p_tp1 42, p_sl 38, p_expire 20.
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