ETHUSD long — 9 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,923.2 and stopped out at 1,898.5 after 22.9 hours, closing at -1.28%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-09 14:38 |
| Entry | 1,923.2 |
| Stop-loss | 1,898.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,941.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,953 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,898.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.28% |
| Time open | 22.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 25.9 rising (slope +1.9) — a genuine trend, not chop — but Hurst 0.22 (strongly mean-reverting) and choppiness 59.6 borderline temper the trend energy; F&G 31 Fear, RV at 9.7th pctile (compressed). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — full bull EMA stack, OI accelerating_up (5m z +2.02), top-trader position ratio 1.34 long, taker 1.50 buy-skewed, agg OI +0.37% with rising funding. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow+positioning aligned with the trend — OI accelerating_up on a full bull EMA stack with taker buy-skew and top-trader long tilt; ETF eth velocity +1.90x adds a macro tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits -0.41% from 5d/20d/90d high with rolling z +1.49 (stretched); rejection at that high with Hurst 0.22 mean-reversion pulling back invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1923.19; stop below recent structure at 1898.5 (~1.28%, ~1x the 24h realized range which is compressed); stretch TP at 1953.0 (~1.55% — inside 4% clamp, ~1.2x stop distance R:R ~1.2), a push through the 5d high which is only 0.41% overhead. 6. EXPECTATION: trend+flow favor upside but stretched z and low-vol tape raise expiry odds.
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